After the Spring Festival, section steel finally ushered in the spring tide of returning to work today. From 16:00 on the 15th, the secondary warning of heavy pollution weather in Tangshan was lifted, and independent steel rolling resumed production. The resumption of production to a certain extent supported the demand for billets, resulting in a new high of billets this morning. But at the same time, the terminal is facing greater difficulties, the pre Festival orders have been a serious loss, and the procurement is more cautious at this stage. In this case, how long can the price last.
Prices remain strong
Figure 1
Since the return of China, the price has been fluctuating and rising, constantly breaking new highs, and the price of section steel has been closely following. Today, the base price of Ruixing channel steel officially exceeded 5000 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in more than ten years. The ex factory price of 145 strip steel in Tang Dynasty is 4850 yuan / ton, and the price of section steel is 100-150 yuan / ton higher than that of strip steel, which is rarely seen over the years. In addition to the support of cost factors, the most important thing is that the supply of corner groove continues to be low. After five years, Tangshan independent rolling enterprise has not produced, and the spot price of section steel is higher than that of other varieties of steel.
Lifting production restriction and returning to work
Figure 2
Zhuo Chuang made an investigation on the daily follow-up work of independent steel rolling enterprises in Tang Dynasty. Today's work rate reached 79.54%, an increase of 72.72 percentage points compared with yesterday's. Since 16:00 on the 15th, the second level warning of heavy environmental pollution in Tangshan has been lifted, and enterprises have resumed production one after another. Due to the shortage of spot resources in the market, the production profits are considerable, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is high. However, due to the environmental protection equipment and the change of production direction in the later period, some manufacturers still did not resume production, so the current operating rate is at the normal high level in history. In the next 2-3 days, enterprises are still replenishing inventory, and there is not much pressure on the supply side, but the resumption of production in Tangshan will have a certain impact on the external resources. However, whether the production can last for a long time still needs to pay attention to the air quality.
At the same time, the re production of adjusted billet has a certain supporting effect on the demand of billet. According to the latest survey of Zhuo ChuangJin, there are 49 blast furnaces in Tangshan, with 121 (including long-term shutdown and withdrawal of blast furnaces) being overhauled. The operating rate of blast furnaces is 59.5%, 8.26% higher than last Friday's data, and the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity is 71.72%, 8.79% higher than last Friday's data. At present, the daily amount of hot metal affected by blast furnace maintenance is 121400 tons, which is 18100 tons less than that of last Friday. On the whole, there is still no pressure on the basic surface of the billet itself under the relative ratio of billet adjustment and BF production.
The terminal is miserable
Since the price rise at the end of 2020, the terminal has been more cautious, and there is no expectation of a big rise in the price after the festival, resulting in more cases of receiving orders before the festival and not preparing goods. In this market, the number of profits and losses is large, so there are many plans to delay the construction period, which makes the terminal demand unable to recover well under the pressure of high prices.
Recently, the power of price rise has been obviously insufficient, the terminal's acceptance of high prices is not high, traders have been upside down shipping, and the pressure has increased. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, demand is not enough to support the current price, and high risk increases.
Future forecast: in recent days, the high turnover is not good, the price has been adjusted up and down for many times, and the terminal's acceptance of high price has not been improved. After several rounds of adjustment, the pressure of traders has increased, and the market upside down shipment situation has increased. This afternoon, the billet fell 30 yuan / ton to 4440 yuan / ton, and the estimated price is facing further correction in the short term, with a range of about 100 yuan. Good support: the pressure on the supply side of the steel plant is not big, the downstream processing enterprises maintain a high level of start-up, and the medium and long-term macro direction is optimistic. Negative factors: short-term resumption of blast furnace production, small increase in supply; slow inventory consumption of traders, greater capital pressure; terminal enterprise profit or even loss.
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